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This report evaluates Chinas position on the war in Ukraine and support for Russia, how this position and Beijings proposed form of peace relates to Chinas international interests, and whether China is likely to provide lethal aid to Russia. Information about the author, Devin Thorne, can be found at the end of the report.
Executive Summary
Recently renewed allegations that China is considering providing lethal aid to Russia contrast starkly with Beijings calls for peace and continued assertions that it is objective and just regarding the war in Ukraine. Based on a review of Chinas perspective on the war and what its leaders likely hope to achieve, Insikt Group judges that relations between China and the United States and Europe will almost certainly remain at odds for the duration of the war. Although Chinas position suggests there are areas of potential collaboration on peace, Beijing is likely pursuing a strategy of using a peace settlement to shape how future international crises are addressed, which contains elements that are almost certainly unacceptable to the US and others.
Chinas leadership almost certainly supports Russia politically, rhetorically, and by allowing trade in dual-use goods to continue to further its own strategic agenda, specifically the preservation of an important partner in the creation of a more multilateral international system. Chinas leadership very likely wants a peaceful end to the war. However, Chinas leadership very likely does not support a peace deal that conforms to, and returns to the status quo of, the current international system as led by the US and legitimizes coercive Western measures used against Russia (namely, sanctions) that could be levied against China in the future (such as in a Taiwan scenario).
Despite its support for Russias position, it is unlikely that Chinas leadership will approve the export of lethal aid to Russia. Such a decision will likely be judged too costly in light of other goals, such as stabilizing relations with the US and Europe and avoiding sanctions. The decision to provide lethal aid likely hinges on whether Chinas leadership judges that, in the short-to-mid term, stable (if not good) relations with the US and Europe are necessary. Chinese Communist Party (CCP) General Secretary Xi Jinpings personal relationship with Russian president Vladimir Putin also has the potential to inform how he weighs the available options. Chinas leadership has likely not yet made a decision to provide lethal aid, and as of this writing, has not (based on publicly available information) exported lethal aid to Russia. If Chinas leadership does decide to export lethal aid to Russia, the US and European response will very likely lead to a serious deterioration in relations with China for the foreseeable future.
Key Judgments
- Chinas leadership almost certainly supports Russia politically, rhetorically, and by allowing trade in dual-use goods to further its own strategic agenda.
- Chinas leadership very likely seeks a peaceful solution to the war, but not at the expense of its vision for how the international order should address future crises.
- It is unlikely that Chinas leadership will allow Chinese companies to provide to Russia what the US and Europe deem lethal aid.
- If Chinas leadership decides to export lethal aid to Russia, the US and Europe will almost certainly impose consequences that would very likely lead to a serious deterioration in relations with China for the foreseeable future.
Source: RecordedFuture
Source Link: https://www.recordedfuture.com/on-ukraine-china-prioritizes-international-ambitions